THE IMPACT OF OPERATIONAL FACTORS ON SEAPORT PERFORMANCE:

A CASE STUDY OF LAGOS PORT COMPLEX, NIGERIA

Abstract

This study investigates the short-run determinants of port performance at Apapa Port, Nigeria, using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The model examines the influence of key variables such as cargo throughput (CTP), ship turnaround time (STT), berth occupancy rate
(BOR), and the number of vessels (NOV) to assess operational efficiency. Results reveal that all independent variables are positively associated with NOV; however, only the lagged NOV, CTP, and STT values are statistically significant at the 1%, 10%, and 5% levels, respectively. BOR was found to be insignificant, suggesting that delays in vessel clearance negatively impact port performance. The analysis further shows that past shipping activities, cargo throughput, and improved ship turnaround time significantly enhance vessel traffic and operational output at the
port. The model demonstrates joint significance at the 5% level with an R-squared of 0.519, indicating that the selected variables explain 52% of the variations in vessel traffic. Diagnostic tests confirm the model’s validity, showing no issues of autocorrelation or heteroskedasticity, while the CUSUM test confirms model stability. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of efficient cargo handling and reduced turnaround time in boosting port productivity.