AN ASSESSMENT OF THE INFLUENCE OF EXTERNAL SECTOR DYNAMICS ON MARITIME SECTOR PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA (1995 – 2023)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of external sector dynamics on maritime sector performance in Nigeria from 1995 to 2023. Anchored in the Balance of Payments (BOP) Theory, the research employs a multiple regression model using OLS to analyze the influence of key external factors,
including trade integration, oil price fluctuations and external debt on maritime transport contribution to GDP (MPI). Secondary data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the World Bank, and the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) form the basis of the analysis. The findings reveal
that trade integration exerts a statistically significant positive effect on maritime sector performance, with a coefficient of 823.6140 and a p-value of 0.0000, indicating that increased international trade enhances port operations and shipping activities. Conversely, oil price fluctuations negatively impact the sector, with a coefficient of -1.360770 (p = 0.0490), reflecting the rising operational costs associated with higher fuel prices. External debt also exhibits a negative and statistically significant relationship with MPI, suggesting that excessive borrowing may
constrain government investment in maritime infrastructure. The study concludes that external sector factors play a critical role in shaping Nigeria’s maritime industry, with trade integration emerging as a key driver of growth, while oil price volatility and external debt present notable challenges. Based on these findings, the study recommends policy measures to strengthen trade integration, explore alternative energy sources for maritime operations, and adopt sustainable debt
management strategies to foster a resilient and efficient maritime sector.