Optimum Energy Loss Model for Evaluating Energy Generation Deficiencies of Thermal Power Stations in Nigeria

Abstract

This study proposes an optimum energy loss model for evaluating energy generation deficiencies of thermal power stations in Nigeria.
The formulated model was used to assess generation data from one of the leading power stations in Nigeria. The results obtained
showed the maximum Energy not supplied Ct max for 2011 with a time loss of 334hrs was 82807.59MWh. The average Ct max of the
station for ten years was computed to be 58651.52MWh with an average time loss of 216.8hrs for the period. 270.53MWh/hr of energy
was lost or not supplied to the grid and for every quarter of an hour, about 42MWh was also not supplied due to inherent plant
constraint. A validity test of the predicted parameters was carried out and the value of the F-test is statistically significant implying that
the fitted model is applicable and the future behavior of the thermal station can be reliably predicted by the given model. From the
above formulation the maximum energy lost due to poor generation and the time loss as it affects the grid demands can also be
determined.