FORECASTING FUTURE DEMAND FOR OFFSHORE INDUSTRIAL VESSEL TYPES IN NIGERIA’S OIL AND GAS SECTOR
Keywords:
Forecasting models, offshore service vessels, oil and gas logistics, demand projection,, regression analysis, Nigeria, maritime economy.Abstract
This study developed and applied forecasting models to estimate the future demand for offshore industrial
vessel types in Nigeria's offshore oil and gas (O&G) sector through 2030. Offshore Service Vessels
(OSVs)—including Platform Supply Vessels (PSVs), Anchor Handling Tug Supply (AHTS) vessels, Crew
Boats (CBs), Security Escort Vessels (SEVs), and Line Handling Tugs (LHTs)—constitute the backbone of
offshore logistics operations. Despite their strategic importance, empirical studies on forecasting future
vessel needs in Nigeria remain limited, leading to poor planning and underinvestment in domestic fleet
expansion. Using secondary time-series data covering 2009–2023 from the Department of Petroleum
Resources (DPR), NIMASA, and NUPRC, this study employed linear and exponential regression models to
predict vessel requirements through 2030. Results indicate sustained upward trajectories for PSVs (6.8%
annual growth) and AHTS vessels (5.9%), reflecting Nigeria's expanding deepwater and floating LNG
projects. Conversely, Crew Boats and Line Handling Tugs displayed slower growth, consistent with
technological substitution effects. Regression-based forecasts confirm that Nigeria will require substantial
increases in high-capacity industrial vessels to meet future operational needs. The study concludes that
predictive modeling provides a robust framework for strategic planning and recommends data-driven fleet
management to enhance local content participation and sustainable offshore logistics development
